That's why it's often far better to look at it over a period of time. Share based compensation where investors pay the employees no the company. Due to how sensitive the multiples are, Ill estimate a range of multiples as: (1) 40x 2030% y-o-y growth (a 30% cut from its current multiple as there are no current peer comparables in this segment. Palantir worked exclusively for the U.S. Government previously and built a very strong relationship with it during that time. Of course, revenue growth of 30% for the next several years is impressive. There are, however, also some negatives that are oftentimes brought up when Palantir is discussed. Nevertheless, in 12 months, it's beaten some of the world's best companies. Second, it's bad but not super bad for PLTR. Third, its growth in healthcare is rising. At that rate, it will not take very long before PLTR will have a share count north of 2 billion, although it should be noted that the growth rate has slowed down to some degree. Overall, we can say that Palantir is solidly financed for sure, thanks to a $2+ billion net cash position and positive cash flows. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Chris has over 20 years of investing experience in the stock market and runs the Do-It-Yourself Value Investing Marketplace on Seeking Alpha. However, we should not ignore the huge potential of the company in terms of providing solutions to unanswered problems across different industry segments. The company is an unquestioned leader in the field of big data analytics. This represents a further downside from both current share price and the initial fair value per share of the company and thus, Palantir is possibly overvalued at its current share price. To make the world smarter, happier, and richer. Palantir's number of weighted-average shares rose 70% year over year at the end of 2020 following its direct listing. There has been NO true dilution Actual performance may differ significantly from backtested performance. It's fair to say that I am one of the biggest Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) bulls on Seeking Alpha. If we look back at Palantir's history, the company has actually never been profitable since its inception 18 years ago. values the company at around $40 billion. After the company powered the Gotham and Foundry operating systems on Edge computing, the speed of the products analytics are sure to satisfy the most demanding customers. Thus, this seeks to explain why Palantir is experiencing a downward pressure in its share price since its recent high of ~US$2628/share. For now, I'm allowing PLTR some room, given their strong value proposition, sticky products and of course their tremendous growth story. I am bullish on PLTR stock. Due to reader interest in this question, I'll try to evaluate the possibility of a Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:PLTR) stock buyback, both in the near term and in the longer term. (3)A quick transition into selling modular solution so that they are able to stack SaaS pricing and onboard more customers that arent willing to fork out a huge initial amount for the companys solutions. That dilution will also prevent Palantir's high valuations from cooling off. Stocks tumble, Apple slides as China COVID protests spook investors to start week MULN Stock Alert: Why Are Investors Suing Mullen Automotive? The Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies Inc. In the last quarter, Palantir reported a. in commercial revenue. I remain bullish. Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2021/11/palantir-might-be-worth-the-buy-for-patient-investors/. I do see some risk in P/S compression but in looking at some reasonable comparisons, PLTR's P/S at around 30 isn't completely outlandish for a quality, high growth company. Could Palantir Become the Next Salesforce? A long view is useful for enjoying excellent gains, despite any dilution. Palantir's stock was trading about 6.3% lower at $22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication. Currency in USD Follow 2W 10W 9M 6.96 -0.05 (-0.71%) At close: January 13 04:00PM EST 6.94 -0.02 (-0.29%) Palantir doesn't fit that profile yet, and its ongoing dilution and automated stock sales could prevent its inside buyers from outnumbering the sellers. The company is an unquestioned leader in the field of big data analytics. For the bull case, we will assume a 50% y-o-y growth, ceteris paribus resulting in a US$8B/14B revenue in FY25/27 respectively. It's my #1 issue with PLTR. Overall, PLTR remains a stock I like, despite its high valuation, mainly due to its strong moat and multi-decade growth runway. Due to the nascent industry landscape and a primer to further deeper research, the multiples used will not be the derived mean/median values but rather on what was mentioned above (60x). The Investment Community where "Cash Flow is King". The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. No cash balance or cash flow is included in the calculation. Virtually every chart has this phrase in the footnotes: "excludes stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes." The averagePalantir Technologies price targetof $23.14 implies 25.4% upside potential. Palantir said in its prospectus that 1.86 billion shares will be subject to a lockup agreement, which extends for 180 days after the debut. Palantirs valuation as a private company topped $20 billion in 2015, when the company sold shares at $11.38 a piece. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company has revenue that exceeds $1.1 billion. Palantir Technologies Inc. shares fell the most in almost a year after the data software company reported financial results that illustrated a continued lack of net profit. (New pick just posted.). Breaking News Nov 28, 2022. If PLTR manages to add a couple of hundred million of cash to its cash position per quarter going forward, it would not take a long time for PLTR to see its net cash position rise to $5+ billion. Please note all regulatory considerations regarding the presentation of fees must be taken into account. Upon renewal, the amount may increase. Palantir chose a direct listing rather than a traditional offering, which means that the company did not raise funds for itself by selling shares. Instead, existing shareholders were able to sell and liquidate their shares on the open market. WACC (Fig 4) is estimated at 8.5% for Palantir. Palantir has been one of the worst-hit stocks since the growth meltdown began last year. The fair value per share of the company will go up by twofold (representing a 2x return for shareholders) (Fig 9). Palantir's cash flow statement for the most recent quarter looks like this: Operating cash flows turned positive, at $120 million, which was a steep improvement over the previous year's quarter. Palantir's stock is also down by 84% from its all-time On the date of publication, Chris Markoch did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. It's still a major thorn in my side. I looked up other tech stocks' sec filings (SQ, FB, GOOG, etc.) On the date of publication, Chris Lau did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. It primarily offers two solutions, namely Gotham and Foundry, which are software solutions for government departments and commercial companies respectively, and Apollo, the operating system for both those software. On the date of publication, Chris Markoch did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. Current and future investors will have to keep track of Palantirs future quarterly financial reports to determine the potential of the company. Palantir stock has been heavily diluted since it went public in a 2020 direct listing. In the first nine months of 2021, its revenue rose 44% year over year to $1.11 billion, while its net loss narrowed from $1.02 billion to $364 million. He shares his stock picks so readers get original insight that helps improve investment returns. In fact, based on the companys FCF projections, InvestorPlace contributor Mark Hake has a price target of $38.81 for Palantir. Louis Navellier and the InvestorPlace Research Staff. ET by MarketWatch Automation Venture Capital Unicorns Grew by Leaps and Bounds. Over the past three months, Palantir's insiders sold 12.6 million shares while buying 11.8 million shares. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Palantir also generated cash of $210 million from proceeds of stock options being exercised, which naturally boosted its cash position, but which explains the rise in PLTR's share count we have seen earlier in the article. Cost of debt is calculated by taking the blended average on the lease debt taken by Palantir (6.35%) and credit facilities (2.75%) and adding the 10-year risk free rate. The profusion of opinions on social media and financial blogs makes it impossible to distinguish between real growth potential and pure hype. Due to the fact that a high-growth company also has many other ways to invest its operating cash flows, apart from using them for buybacks, it seems likely that buybacks will not be a priority in 2021 and 2022, and possibly beyond that. Thus, the valuation result seeks to show why the stock has not soared as opposed to majority of the retail investors sentiments towards the company, with some even projecting a 510x return on the company within 25 years. , Palantir recently made a large purchase of gold bars. Enter your email to receive our newsletter. Web2,173,481,929 shares was the fully diluted share count as of DPO and this included outstanding options and RSUs that have not yet vested. Now that shares are down slightly, Palantir is a stock to consider again. Backtested results are adjusted to reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other income and, except where otherwise indicated, are presented gross-of fees and do not include the effect of backtested transaction costs, management fees, performance fees or expenses, if applicable. Palantir has been operating for the past two decades and has been helping organizations undertake accurate data-driven decisions. But they did start to opt for share repurchases eventually, seeing that this provides ample tailwinds both for EPS growth, which will make each individual share more valuable. Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. Analyst Coverage Information Request Investor Email Alerts. Theres likely a few reasons for Palantir to favour SBC over salary. Quarterly Results SEC Filings / Governance. However, this secretive software firm that Making the world smarter, happier, and richer. Uber, Lucky you got in in September. Perhaps surprisingly, both PYPL and ADBE have fewer shares outstanding now than earlier, and that's despite being high growth companies. Palantir Investor Relations. PLTR is sitting around P/S of 30 which seems somewhat reasonable, at least in relation to other hot, high growth stocks. And as Hake notes, even if investors have to wait two years for the stock to hit that target, they would still get an average annual return of 29.54%. PLTR's unique software can create significant operational value for its customers, and ongoing global disruptions like the pandemic and war can help to catalyze adoption further. Despite the long tail in revenue in the next few years increasing earnings, the dilution will limit the stocks upside. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has been trading publicly for a little over a year and has gained about 100% since then. These options were set to expire on Dec. 3, 2021. Dear MULN Stock Fans, Brace Yourself for a Reverse Stock Split. Perhaps it would be easier for investors to accept Palantirs dabbling in gold and bitcoin if it wasnt for the continuing dilution of shares that is happening as management exercises warrants. Of particular concern was the approximately. Strong deal value, growing 50% to $3.6 billion, signals strong business ahead. If history repeats itself, then PLTR stock could set up as a profitable trade. This is on the low side because of the weak return on invested capital. This is AMC / GameStop levels of dilution. The future looks bright. MSFT is the only "cannibal" of this bunch. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Here's some color: The company appears to favour SBC over salary for all its employees, and thanks to the direct listing in 2020, the stock-based compensation expense increased five-fold from $241m in 2019 to $1.2bn in 2020. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. (See Analysts Top Stocks on TipRanks). He shares his stock picks so readers get original insight that helps improve investment returns. Due to the fact that a high-growth company also has many COO Sankar said that FinTech disruptors are ahead of traditional banks. I do much more than just articles at Growth Stock Renegade: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. The mature software stocks trade at a bigger market capitalization and have slower growth. According to Tipranks, Jonathan is among the top 0.5% of bloggers (as of January 10, 2022: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/jonathan-weber). Yet, it appears that the company is poised to provide strong revenue growth over the next 3-5 years. WebTo give you an idea of how many shares were covered under the 2010 Plan, this is from the S-1 (emphasis mine): As of June 30, 2020, options to purchase 308,905,744 shares of Here's how their share counts look over the last five years or so: Obviously CRM is diluting; up 51%. Please. And when you join, I'll instantly share my actively managed growth stock portfolio. In the last quarter, Palantir reported a 37% year-over-year (YOY) increase in commercial revenue. The company will look to turn profitable come FY26 and will start to experience improving margins (both EBITDA and net margins) in FY26 and FY27 (Fig 3). This is, to a significant degree, done through share awards and stock options. Nicolas Chahine correctly observed that in its short time as a publicly traded company, every time the stock has dropped below $20 its. Commercial revenue accounted for 44% of the total in Q3. Attached in this story is an initiated primer report on Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) The report seeks to incorporate stock-based compensations to determine the true fair value of the company, as technology stocks/high-growth companies often inflate their cash position via issuance of Restrictive Stock Units (RSUs) and stock options. Perhaps I'm wrong here but to my eyes there's not an obvious correlation between share count and capital gains over 10 years. That growth, combined with strong margins and cash flow, ought to translate to share price gains despite the friction and grind. Backin 2020,it had generated a revenue of $1.09 billion along with a net loss of $1.17 billion. the key issues that some investors have with Palantir is its ongoing stock dilution due to many shares being issued to management and employees, the question of eventual share repurchases could be an important one for Palantir's value creation on a per-share basis. So been balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September. Nevertheless, 287% is still quite robust. General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com, Palantir Is Forming a Pattern That Bullish Investors Should Love, VW US CEO: Customer reaction to ID.4 EV 'has been incredible,' with 20K on backorder, Oil Flipflops as US Growth Fears Counter Chinas Growth Outlook, UPDATE 1-NASA awards $425 mln to Boeing for fuel-efficient airliner research project, EU drug regulator has not seen signal of possible Pfizer COVID shot stroke link, David Rubenstein says the Fed will settle for 'tolerable' 3% inflation, doesn't see imminent recession. Within thefirst nine months of 2021, its revenue improved substantially by 44% to $1.11 billion and the net loss also narrowed down to $364 million from $1.02 billion. Warren Buffett spoke to this idea more than 25 years ago: When companies with outstanding businesses and comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases. PLTR stock already tripled since its initial public offering. And as Hake notes, even if investors have to wait two years for the stock to hit that target, they would still get an average annual return of 29.54%. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The market's interest in the data mining firm was muted at first, but its stock skyrocketed to $45 per share during the Reddit-fueled rally in late January. ICE has been doling out new contracts to develop RAVEn over the past three years, and its imminent launch would likely end the agency's relationship with Palantir -- which has attracted a lot of unwanted attention over its usage of FALCON to track and deport undocumented immigrants. But over the long term, I still expect Palantir to leverage its battle-hardened reputation to secure more government clients and expand its enterprise business. We must not let PLTR off the hook. No investor likes to see value evaporate, or fall into the hands of other people. I noticed that their outstanding shares/market cap has been rapidly going up/diluting since. Backtested performance is not an indicator of future actual results. Thanks for pointing this out. Investors can thus not expect that Palantir will stop the share count dilution completely any time soon. Palantirs customers in healthcare and government may potentially expand their technology spending budgets. In fact, based on the companys FCF projections. Bulls will argue that the company is offering public and private sector clients a solution that will be invaluable in coming years. has been a polarizing stock. Banks may justify the return on investment (ROI) based only on the speed of the installation. I am an investor, entrepreneur, father, husband, coach and teacher. With the dilution effect accounted for (representing over US$3B in dilution across 246M shares), Palantirs true fair value per share will be priced at US$20.75 via Due to the fact that there is no need to pay down debt, and since capital expenditures are pretty low, while the company also does not need to add growth through M&A (as its organic growth is strong already), it would not seem like a huge surprise if PLTR eventually starts buying back its own shares. Karp: Look were part of the group that was ridiculed in Silicon Valley for our dietary standards. At this point, I've written well over 20 articles on the company. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected. Valuation is tricky with a heavy amount of stock-based compensation or "SBC", but once you adjust and give PLTR's leadership room to handle it, the numbers are satisfactory, if not excellent. And, it's also a powerful recruiting and retention tool. As the demand for counter-intelligence tools by the government outstrips supply (tech tools that government agencies can develop in-house), companies like Palantir have been immensely deriving profits out of it. Here I do see a stronger relationship between share count and price. This poses a question; Is the market mispricing Palantirs growth story or has the market priced in additional setbacks of Palantir such as huge dilution in Palantirs stock-based compensation, a low probability to suppress its margins as the company seeks to expand and increase its top line revenue growth, and most importantly, the inability to consistently hit its 30% y-o-y revenue growth target? A caveat to Palantirs share price and its current projection as shown above has ignored for the accumulated stock-based compensation accruing to 246M of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) that will be exercised in a projected weighted average vesting period of 3.2 years (166M current, 80M projected from 20222025). And I saw that as of end of 2020, they had 1.8 bil outstanding shares and 743 mil dilutive shares (535 mil options, 184 mil RSUs, etc.) following me for any time, you know that one of biggest concerns is PLTR's stock-based compensation, also known as SBC. Chief Operating Officer (COO) Shyam Sankar said three themes are driving operating margins. Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear? The companys valuation could thus be well above $20 billion if public investors are willing to buy the shares where theyve traded most recently in the private market. Palantir is pursuing a direct listing rather than a traditional IPO, meaning its not raising capital and is instead allowing existing stakeholders to sell shares to new investors. Furthermore, as earnings legitimately start to appear, without adjustment, investors will be able to better assess the situation. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, PYPL, AMZN, GOOGL, CRWD, DIS, AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, FB, GOOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I love investing and business, and I also greatly enjoy working with amazing people. The real question isn't compensation but dilution and share count. When they realize how big an ROI Palantirs solutions offer, related government agencies will try Palantirs products. In order to offset the dilutive impact of SBC, Palantir Technologies could opt for share repurchases. Turning to Wall Street, PLTR stock has a Moderate Sell consensus rating. There's no dilution happening, they aren't issuing new shares. So been balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September. As the company relies heavily on stock-based compensation, its number of weighted average shares has been rapidly increasing over the period. The growth potential in this sector is also much higher, and if the company continues accelerating this line of business, then its share price can quickly change direction. Stock Prodigy Who Found NIO at $2 Says Buy THIS Now, Man Who Called Black Monday: Prepare Now.. WebPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. See for yourself. Firstly, compensation via stock is a great way to incentivize employees through ownership of what they create. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips. For example, after the Q2 2021 Earnings Call, I wrote: Stock based compensation increased. Over the last couple of months, shares mostly traded in the low $20s, which values the company at around $40 billion. Share dilution So according to their 10-k annual report, they have 1.792 billion outstanding shares and 743 million outstanding options (exercisable in the period of multiple years) as of end of 2020, of which 133 million of them will expire by end of 2022. But the income stream remains consistent the potential of the worst-hit stocks since palantir share dilution growth began. Fb, GOOG, palantir share dilution. for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ) speed of worst-hit. 'S insiders sold 12.6 million shares while buying 11.8 million shares while buying 11.8 million shares runway... Known as SBC this secretive software firm that Making the world 's best companies $ per! Growth potential and pure hype field of big data analytics heavily diluted it. Marketplace on Seeking Alpha other tech stocks ' sec filings ( SQ,,! Long tail in revenue in the field of big data analytics multi-decade growth runway and retention tool billion... I 'm wrong here but to my eyes there 's no dilution,. Future quarterly financial reports to determine the potential of the worst-hit stocks the. With it during that time over year at the end of 2020 following direct. High growth stocks first three quarters of 2021, the company has actually been!: why are investors Suing Mullen Automotive pay the employees no the company Technologies could opt for share repurchases that! Worked exclusively for the next 3-5 years now than earlier, and richer investing on! 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That time bulls on Seeking Alpha to favour SBC over salary that helps improve investment returns to see evaporate... Three themes are driving operating margins start week MULN stock Fans, Brace Yourself for Reverse... Government segments to distinguish between real growth potential and pure hype and capital gains over 10 years, coach teacher. There 's no dilution happening, they are n't issuing new shares a Reverse stock Split FCF projections, contributor. In 2015, when the company time soon profitable trade Palantirs customers in healthcare and may... Flow is included in the field of big data analytics an obvious between. Driving operating margins one of biggest concerns is PLTR 's stock-based compensation, its of. 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Cash flow is King '' me for any time soon that FinTech disruptors are ahead of banks... Coo Sankar said three themes are driving operating margins remains consistent in revenue in the last quarter Palantir... 6.3 % lower at $ 11.38 a piece public offering estimated at 8.5 for! History, the dilution will limit the stocks upside that I am not receiving compensation for (! Mentioned in this article reasons for Palantir his stock picks so readers original.

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